ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data
Where is it warm in October?
Ranked by historical clear-sky percentage from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025, 55 destinations). Palm Desert leads with 95% historically clear days in this month (n=248). Every percentage below has its sample size beside it.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
A destination that is historically 90% clear in October can still be overcast
this specific October. For this week’s actual forecast, each
destination links to its live page.
| # | Destination | Early October (1st–15th, n) |
Late October (16th–end, n) |
Month avg | Avg high | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palm Desert CA | 92% (n=120) | 98% (n=128) | 95% | 90°F | Palm Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 95% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 2 | Palm Springs Desert CA | 92% (n=120) | 97% (n=128) | 95% | 91°F | Palm Springs Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 95% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 3 | Palm Springs CA | 92% (n=120) | 96% (n=128) | 94% | 89°F | Palm Springs is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 94% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 4 | Los Angeles CA | 85% (n=120) | 87% (n=128) | 86% | 82°F | Los Angeles is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 86% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 5 | Phoenix AZ | 79% (n=120) | 91% (n=128) | 85% | 89°F | Phoenix is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 85% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 6 | Scottsdale Desert Ridge AZ | 81% (n=120) | 88% (n=128) | 85% | 87°F | Scottsdale Desert Ridge is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 85% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 7 | Scottsdale AZ | 77% (n=120) | 88% (n=128) | 83% | 89°F | Scottsdale is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 83% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 8 | Las Vegas NV | 86% (n=120) | 79% (n=128) | 82% | 83°F | Las Vegas is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 82% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 9 | Tucson AZ | 78% (n=120) | 85% (n=128) | 82% | 86°F | Tucson is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 82% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 10 | Santa Barbara CA | 82% (n=120) | 81% (n=128) | 81% | 80°F | Santa Barbara is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 81% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 11 | Napa CA | 82% (n=120) | 65% (n=128) | 73% | 79°F | Napa clears solidly in this month — 73% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 79°F. |
| 12 | San Luis Obispo CA | 72% (n=120) | 70% (n=128) | 71% | 78°F | San Luis Obispo clears solidly in this month — 71% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. |
| 13 | Marfa TX | 77% (n=120) | 61% (n=128) | 69% | 78°F | Marfa clears solidly in this month — 69% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. |
| 14 | Wine Country Sonoma CA | 78% (n=120) | 58% (n=128) | 68% | 78°F | Wine Country Sonoma clears solidly in this month — 68% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. |
| 15 | San Diego CA | 62% (n=120) | 59% (n=128) | 60% | 75°F | San Diego clears solidly in this month — 60% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 75°F. |
| 16 | Panama City Beach FL | 59% (n=120) | 46% (n=128) | 52% | 80°F | Panama City Beach is mixed in this month: clear 52% of days historically (n=248), avg high 80°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 17 | Sedona AZ | 62% (n=120) | 39% (n=128) | 50% | 74°F | Sedona is mixed in this month: clear 50% of days historically (n=248), avg high 74°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 18 | Dallas TX | 66% (n=120) | 34% (n=128) | 49% | 80°F | Dallas is mixed in this month: clear 49% of days historically (n=248), avg high 80°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 19 | Destin FL | 56% (n=120) | 43% (n=128) | 49% | 79°F | Destin is mixed in this month: clear 49% of days historically (n=248), avg high 79°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 20 | Newport Beach CA | 53% (n=120) | 46% (n=128) | 49% | 73°F | Newport Beach is mixed in this month: clear 49% of days historically (n=248), avg high 73°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 21 | San Antonio TX | 58% (n=120) | 40% (n=128) | 49% | 84°F | San Antonio is mixed in this month: clear 49% of days historically (n=248), avg high 84°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 22 | Austin TX | 62% (n=120) | 35% (n=128) | 48% | 83°F | Austin is mixed in this month: clear 48% of days historically (n=248), avg high 83°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 23 | Gulf Shores AL | 55% (n=120) | 40% (n=128) | 47% | 78°F | Gulf Shores is mixed in this month: clear 47% of days historically (n=248), avg high 78°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 24 | Savannah GA | 48% (n=120) | 47% (n=128) | 47% | 78°F | Savannah is mixed in this month: clear 47% of days historically (n=248), avg high 78°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 25 | Albuquerque NM | 59% (n=120) | 34% (n=128) | 46% | 72°F | Albuquerque is mixed in this month: clear 46% of days historically (n=248), avg high 72°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 26 | Kiawah Island SC | 47% (n=120) | 45% (n=128) | 46% | 77°F | Kiawah Island is mixed in this month: clear 46% of days historically (n=248), avg high 77°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 27 | Charleston SC | 47% (n=120) | 43% (n=128) | 45% | 76°F | Charleston is mixed in this month: clear 45% of days historically (n=248), avg high 76°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 28 | Hilton Head SC | 49% (n=120) | 41% (n=128) | 45% | 77°F | Hilton Head is mixed in this month: clear 45% of days historically (n=248), avg high 77°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 29 | Houston TX | 53% (n=120) | 35% (n=128) | 44% | 81°F | Houston is mixed in this month: clear 44% of days historically (n=248), avg high 81°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 30 | Sea Island GA | 40% (n=120) | 44% (n=128) | 42% | 77°F | Sea Island is mixed in this month: clear 42% of days historically (n=248), avg high 77°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 31 | Moab UT | 55% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 41% | 70°F | Moab is mixed in this month: clear 41% of days historically (n=248), avg high 70°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 32 | Tampa FL | 32% (n=120) | 50% (n=128) | 41% | 84°F | Tampa is mixed in this month: clear 41% of days historically (n=248), avg high 84°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 33 | Sarasota FL | 30% (n=120) | 48% (n=128) | 39% | 83°F | Sarasota is mostly overcast this month historically: only 39% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 83°F. |
| 34 | Charlotte NC | 44% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 35% | 72°F | Charlotte is mostly overcast this month historically: only 35% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 72°F. |
| 35 | Amelia Island FL | 30% (n=120) | 37% (n=128) | 34% | 78°F | Amelia Island is mostly overcast this month historically: only 34% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. |
| 36 | St. Augustine FL | 28% (n=120) | 39% (n=128) | 34% | 79°F | St. Augustine is mostly overcast this month historically: only 34% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 79°F. |
| 37 | Jacksonville FL | 28% (n=120) | 37% (n=128) | 33% | 79°F | Jacksonville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 33% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 79°F. |
| 38 | Nashville TN | 43% (n=120) | 21% (n=128) | 32% | 73°F | Nashville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 32% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 73°F. |
| 39 | Big Sur CA | 32% (n=120) | 28% (n=128) | 30% | 70°F | Big Sur is mostly overcast this month historically: only 30% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 70°F. |
| 40 | Orlando FL | 18% (n=120) | 42% (n=128) | 30% | 82°F | Orlando is mostly overcast this month historically: only 30% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 82°F. |
| 41 | Asheville NC | 33% (n=120) | 14% (n=128) | 23% | 68°F | Asheville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 68°F. → Try September |
| 42 | Naples FL | 12% (n=120) | 34% (n=128) | 23% | 86°F | Naples is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 86°F. → Try March |
| 43 | Outer Banks NC | 32% (n=120) | 8% (n=128) | 20% | 71°F | Outer Banks is mostly overcast this month historically: only 20% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 71°F. → Try June |
| 44 | Palm Beach FL | 9% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 18% | 83°F | Palm Beach is poor for sun this month: just 18% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 45 | Taos NM | 28% (n=120) | 6% (n=128) | 17% | 64°F | Taos is poor for sun this month: just 17% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try June |
| 46 | Carmel-by-the-Sea CA | 19% (n=120) | 13% (n=128) | 16% | 67°F | Carmel-by-the-Sea is poor for sun this month: just 16% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 47 | Santa Fe NM | 22% (n=120) | 6% (n=128) | 14% | 63°F | Santa Fe is poor for sun this month: just 14% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try June |
| 48 | Key West FL | 8% (n=120) | 18% (n=128) | 13% | 82°F | Key West is poor for sun this month: just 13% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 49 | Fort Lauderdale FL | 4% (n=120) | 20% (n=128) | 12% | 83°F | Fort Lauderdale is poor for sun this month: just 12% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 50 | Miami FL | 6% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 11% | 84°F | Miami is poor for sun this month: just 11% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 51 | Lake Tahoe CA | 18% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 10% | 60°F | Lake Tahoe is poor for sun this month: just 10% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try July |
| 52 | Aspen CO | 4% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 2% | 57°F | Aspen is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 53 | Park City UT | 5% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 2% | 55°F | Park City is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 54 | Jackson Hole WY | 3% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 1% | 54°F | Jackson Hole is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 55 | Vail CO | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 53°F | Vail is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
Honest note on the bottom of this list: Vail is historically 0% clear in October (n=248 days). That is not a soft number — it means roughly 0 days out of every 100 historically meet our clear bar here in this month. If you want Vail, try August instead.
Every month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.