ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data
Where is it warm in August?
Ranked by historical clear-sky percentage from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025, 55 destinations). Napa leads with 96% historically clear days in this month (n=248). Every percentage below has its sample size beside it.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
A destination that is historically 90% clear in August can still be overcast
this specific August. For this week’s actual forecast, each
destination links to its live page.
| # | Destination | Early August (1st–15th, n) |
Late August (16th–end, n) |
Month avg | Avg high | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napa CA | 97% (n=120) | 95% (n=128) | 96% | 88°F | Napa is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 96% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 2 | Palm Springs CA | 95% (n=120) | 96% (n=128) | 96% | 106°F | Palm Springs is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 96% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 3 | Santa Barbara CA | 98% (n=120) | 94% (n=128) | 96% | 86°F | Santa Barbara is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 96% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 4 | Los Angeles CA | 98% (n=120) | 92% (n=128) | 95% | 90°F | Los Angeles is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 95% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 5 | Wine Country Sonoma CA | 98% (n=120) | 92% (n=128) | 95% | 87°F | Wine Country Sonoma is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 95% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 6 | Palm Springs Desert CA | 92% (n=120) | 95% (n=128) | 94% | 108°F | Palm Springs Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 94% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 7 | Palm Desert CA | 91% (n=120) | 90% (n=128) | 90% | 107°F | Palm Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 90% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 8 | San Diego CA | 92% (n=120) | 88% (n=128) | 90% | 78°F | San Diego is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 90% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 9 | San Luis Obispo CA | 92% (n=120) | 88% (n=128) | 90% | 80°F | San Luis Obispo is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 90% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 10 | Newport Beach CA | 91% (n=120) | 85% (n=128) | 88% | 76°F | Newport Beach is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 88% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 11 | Las Vegas NV | 82% (n=120) | 87% (n=128) | 85% | 104°F | Las Vegas is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 85% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 12 | Moab UT | 88% (n=120) | 80% (n=128) | 84% | 96°F | Moab is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 84% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 13 | Lake Tahoe CA | 84% (n=120) | 77% (n=128) | 80% | 79°F | Lake Tahoe is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 80% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 14 | Scottsdale Desert Ridge AZ | 83% (n=120) | 73% (n=128) | 78% | 104°F | Scottsdale Desert Ridge clears solidly in this month — 78% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 104°F. |
| 15 | Phoenix AZ | 76% (n=120) | 76% (n=128) | 76% | 106°F | Phoenix clears solidly in this month — 76% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 106°F. |
| 16 | Scottsdale AZ | 78% (n=120) | 73% (n=128) | 75% | 105°F | Scottsdale clears solidly in this month — 75% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 105°F. |
| 17 | Albuquerque NM | 72% (n=120) | 69% (n=128) | 70% | 91°F | Albuquerque clears solidly in this month — 70% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 91°F. |
| 18 | Marfa TX | 70% (n=120) | 51% (n=128) | 60% | 90°F | Marfa clears solidly in this month — 60% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 90°F. |
| 19 | Jackson Hole WY | 58% (n=120) | 58% (n=128) | 58% | 79°F | Jackson Hole is mixed in this month: clear 58% of days historically (n=248), avg high 79°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 20 | Sedona AZ | 55% (n=120) | 59% (n=128) | 57% | 91°F | Sedona is mixed in this month: clear 57% of days historically (n=248), avg high 91°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 21 | Tucson AZ | 50% (n=120) | 59% (n=128) | 55% | 99°F | Tucson is mixed in this month: clear 55% of days historically (n=248), avg high 99°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 22 | Dallas TX | 60% (n=120) | 48% (n=128) | 54% | 96°F | Dallas is mixed in this month: clear 54% of days historically (n=248), avg high 96°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 23 | Taos NM | 54% (n=120) | 53% (n=128) | 53% | 83°F | Taos is mixed in this month: clear 53% of days historically (n=248), avg high 83°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 24 | Aspen CO | 50% (n=120) | 45% (n=128) | 47% | 78°F | Aspen is mixed in this month: clear 47% of days historically (n=248), avg high 78°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 25 | Santa Fe NM | 47% (n=120) | 47% (n=128) | 47% | 82°F | Santa Fe is mixed in this month: clear 47% of days historically (n=248), avg high 82°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 26 | Austin TX | 49% (n=120) | 43% (n=128) | 46% | 97°F | Austin is mixed in this month: clear 46% of days historically (n=248), avg high 97°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 27 | Vail CO | 48% (n=120) | 44% (n=128) | 46% | 76°F | Vail is mixed in this month: clear 46% of days historically (n=248), avg high 76°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 28 | San Antonio TX | 51% (n=120) | 39% (n=128) | 45% | 97°F | San Antonio is mixed in this month: clear 45% of days historically (n=248), avg high 97°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 29 | Park City UT | 42% (n=120) | 41% (n=128) | 41% | 78°F | Park City is mixed in this month: clear 41% of days historically (n=248), avg high 78°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 30 | Big Sur CA | 39% (n=120) | 38% (n=128) | 38% | 71°F | Big Sur is mostly overcast this month historically: only 38% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 71°F. |
| 31 | Outer Banks NC | 30% (n=120) | 39% (n=128) | 35% | 81°F | Outer Banks is mostly overcast this month historically: only 35% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 81°F. |
| 32 | Nashville TN | 23% (n=120) | 41% (n=128) | 32% | 87°F | Nashville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 32% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 87°F. |
| 33 | Asheville NC | 15% (n=120) | 35% (n=128) | 25% | 82°F | Asheville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 82°F. → Try September |
| 34 | Charlotte NC | 12% (n=120) | 33% (n=128) | 23% | 87°F | Charlotte is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 87°F. → Try September |
| 35 | Houston TX | 22% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 23% | 92°F | Houston is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 92°F. → Try October |
| 36 | Gulf Shores AL | 12% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 14% | 87°F | Gulf Shores is poor for sun this month: just 14% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 37 | Key West FL | 15% (n=120) | 11% (n=128) | 13% | 86°F | Key West is poor for sun this month: just 13% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 38 | Charleston SC | 11% (n=120) | 12% (n=128) | 12% | 85°F | Charleston is poor for sun this month: just 12% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 39 | Panama City Beach FL | 8% (n=120) | 14% (n=128) | 11% | 87°F | Panama City Beach is poor for sun this month: just 11% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 40 | Destin FL | 8% (n=120) | 12% (n=128) | 10% | 87°F | Destin is poor for sun this month: just 10% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 41 | Kiawah Island SC | 8% (n=120) | 12% (n=128) | 10% | 85°F | Kiawah Island is poor for sun this month: just 10% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 42 | Amelia Island FL | 8% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 9% | 86°F | Amelia Island is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 43 | Hilton Head SC | 6% (n=120) | 12% (n=128) | 9% | 86°F | Hilton Head is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 44 | Savannah GA | 3% (n=120) | 12% (n=128) | 8% | 87°F | Savannah is poor for sun this month: just 8% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 45 | Jacksonville FL | 6% (n=120) | 8% (n=128) | 7% | 88°F | Jacksonville is poor for sun this month: just 7% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 46 | Sea Island GA | 6% (n=120) | 8% (n=128) | 7% | 85°F | Sea Island is poor for sun this month: just 7% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 47 | St. Augustine FL | 6% (n=120) | 6% (n=128) | 6% | 86°F | St. Augustine is poor for sun this month: just 6% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 48 | Sarasota FL | 4% (n=120) | 5% (n=128) | 5% | 88°F | Sarasota is poor for sun this month: just 5% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 49 | Carmel-by-the-Sea CA | 2% (n=120) | 6% (n=128) | 4% | 65°F | Carmel-by-the-Sea is historically very rarely clear this month: only 4% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 50 | Orlando FL | 2% (n=120) | 3% (n=128) | 3% | 88°F | Orlando is historically very rarely clear this month: only 3% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try March |
| 51 | Fort Lauderdale FL | 2% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 2% | 88°F | Fort Lauderdale is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try March |
| 52 | Miami FL | 3% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 2% | 88°F | Miami is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try March |
| 53 | Naples FL | 1% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 2% | 89°F | Naples is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try March |
| 54 | Palm Beach FL | 3% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 2% | 87°F | Palm Beach is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try March |
| 55 | Tampa FL | 0% (n=120) | 4% (n=128) | 2% | 88°F | Tampa is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try April |
Honest note on the bottom of this list: Tampa is historically 2% clear in August (n=248 days). That is not a soft number — it means roughly 2 days out of every 100 historically meet our clear bar here in this month. If you want Tampa, try April instead.
Every month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.