ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data
Where is it warm in May?
Ranked by historical clear-sky percentage from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025, 55 destinations). Palm Springs Desert leads with 98% historically clear days in this month (n=248). Every percentage below has its sample size beside it.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
A destination that is historically 90% clear in May can still be overcast
this specific May. For this week’s actual forecast, each
destination links to its live page.
| # | Destination | Early May (1st–15th, n) |
Late May (16th–end, n) |
Month avg | Avg high | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palm Springs Desert CA | 98% (n=120) | 98% (n=128) | 98% | 95°F | Palm Springs Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 98% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 2 | Palm Desert CA | 96% (n=120) | 98% (n=128) | 97% | 94°F | Palm Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 97% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 3 | Palm Springs CA | 98% (n=120) | 95% (n=128) | 96% | 93°F | Palm Springs is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 96% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 4 | Phoenix AZ | 92% (n=120) | 97% (n=128) | 95% | 96°F | Phoenix is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 95% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 5 | Tucson AZ | 94% (n=120) | 94% (n=128) | 94% | 92°F | Tucson is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 94% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 6 | Scottsdale AZ | 91% (n=120) | 95% (n=128) | 93% | 95°F | Scottsdale is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 93% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 7 | Scottsdale Desert Ridge AZ | 89% (n=120) | 95% (n=128) | 92% | 93°F | Scottsdale Desert Ridge is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 92% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 8 | Las Vegas NV | 92% (n=120) | 84% (n=128) | 88% | 91°F | Las Vegas is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 88% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 9 | Sedona AZ | 80% (n=120) | 83% (n=128) | 82% | 81°F | Sedona is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 82% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 10 | Albuquerque NM | 76% (n=120) | 81% (n=128) | 79% | 82°F | Albuquerque clears solidly in this month — 79% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 82°F. |
| 11 | Marfa TX | 71% (n=120) | 75% (n=128) | 73% | 87°F | Marfa clears solidly in this month — 73% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 87°F. |
| 12 | Moab UT | 68% (n=120) | 77% (n=128) | 73% | 81°F | Moab clears solidly in this month — 73% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 81°F. |
| 13 | Napa CA | 66% (n=120) | 73% (n=128) | 70% | 77°F | Napa clears solidly in this month — 70% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 77°F. |
| 14 | Los Angeles CA | 70% (n=120) | 68% (n=128) | 69% | 76°F | Los Angeles clears solidly in this month — 69% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 76°F. |
| 15 | Wine Country Sonoma CA | 58% (n=120) | 63% (n=128) | 61% | 75°F | Wine Country Sonoma clears solidly in this month — 61% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 75°F. |
| 16 | Santa Barbara CA | 52% (n=120) | 40% (n=128) | 46% | 73°F | Santa Barbara is mixed in this month: clear 46% of days historically (n=248), avg high 73°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 17 | Panama City Beach FL | 48% (n=120) | 38% (n=128) | 43% | 81°F | Panama City Beach is mixed in this month: clear 43% of days historically (n=248), avg high 81°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 18 | Jacksonville FL | 46% (n=120) | 37% (n=128) | 41% | 85°F | Jacksonville is mixed in this month: clear 41% of days historically (n=248), avg high 85°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 19 | Santa Fe NM | 35% (n=120) | 46% (n=128) | 41% | 72°F | Santa Fe is mixed in this month: clear 41% of days historically (n=248), avg high 72°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 20 | Charlotte NC | 35% (n=120) | 45% (n=128) | 40% | 80°F | Charlotte is mixed in this month: clear 40% of days historically (n=248), avg high 80°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 21 | Sarasota FL | 48% (n=120) | 32% (n=128) | 40% | 85°F | Sarasota is mixed in this month: clear 40% of days historically (n=248), avg high 85°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 22 | St. Augustine FL | 42% (n=120) | 39% (n=128) | 40% | 82°F | St. Augustine is mixed in this month: clear 40% of days historically (n=248), avg high 82°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 23 | Taos NM | 30% (n=120) | 50% (n=128) | 40% | 71°F | Taos is mixed in this month: clear 40% of days historically (n=248), avg high 71°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 24 | Hilton Head SC | 44% (n=120) | 35% (n=128) | 39% | 81°F | Hilton Head is mostly overcast this month historically: only 39% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 81°F. |
| 25 | Amelia Island FL | 45% (n=120) | 31% (n=128) | 38% | 82°F | Amelia Island is mostly overcast this month historically: only 38% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 82°F. |
| 26 | Destin FL | 45% (n=120) | 32% (n=128) | 38% | 82°F | Destin is mostly overcast this month historically: only 38% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 82°F. |
| 27 | Kiawah Island SC | 45% (n=120) | 32% (n=128) | 38% | 80°F | Kiawah Island is mostly overcast this month historically: only 38% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 80°F. |
| 28 | Tampa FL | 41% (n=120) | 35% (n=128) | 38% | 87°F | Tampa is mostly overcast this month historically: only 38% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 87°F. |
| 29 | Charleston SC | 44% (n=120) | 31% (n=128) | 37% | 80°F | Charleston is mostly overcast this month historically: only 37% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 80°F. |
| 30 | Savannah GA | 42% (n=120) | 32% (n=128) | 37% | 84°F | Savannah is mostly overcast this month historically: only 37% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 84°F. |
| 31 | Dallas TX | 42% (n=120) | 30% (n=128) | 36% | 84°F | Dallas is mostly overcast this month historically: only 36% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 84°F. |
| 32 | Sea Island GA | 41% (n=120) | 31% (n=128) | 36% | 81°F | Sea Island is mostly overcast this month historically: only 36% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 81°F. |
| 33 | Gulf Shores AL | 42% (n=120) | 29% (n=128) | 35% | 81°F | Gulf Shores is mostly overcast this month historically: only 35% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 81°F. |
| 34 | Key West FL | 38% (n=120) | 29% (n=128) | 33% | 82°F | Key West is mostly overcast this month historically: only 33% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 82°F. |
| 35 | Orlando FL | 32% (n=120) | 29% (n=128) | 30% | 87°F | Orlando is mostly overcast this month historically: only 30% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 87°F. |
| 36 | Naples FL | 34% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 28% | 87°F | Naples is mostly overcast this month historically: only 28% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 87°F. → Try March |
| 37 | Nashville TN | 23% (n=120) | 33% (n=128) | 28% | 79°F | Nashville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 28% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 79°F. → Try September |
| 38 | Austin TX | 32% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 27% | 87°F | Austin is mostly overcast this month historically: only 27% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 87°F. → Try October |
| 39 | San Luis Obispo CA | 32% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 27% | 69°F | San Luis Obispo is mostly overcast this month historically: only 27% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 69°F. → Try August |
| 40 | Asheville NC | 21% (n=120) | 30% (n=128) | 26% | 74°F | Asheville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 26% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 74°F. → Try September |
| 41 | San Antonio TX | 31% (n=120) | 22% (n=128) | 26% | 88°F | San Antonio is mostly overcast this month historically: only 26% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 88°F. → Try October |
| 42 | Houston TX | 29% (n=120) | 17% (n=128) | 23% | 85°F | Houston is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 85°F. → Try October |
| 43 | Fort Lauderdale FL | 26% (n=120) | 15% (n=128) | 20% | 85°F | Fort Lauderdale is mostly overcast this month historically: only 20% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 85°F. → Try March |
| 44 | Miami FL | 23% (n=120) | 18% (n=128) | 20% | 85°F | Miami is mostly overcast this month historically: only 20% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 85°F. → Try March |
| 45 | Palm Beach FL | 26% (n=120) | 15% (n=128) | 20% | 84°F | Palm Beach is mostly overcast this month historically: only 20% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 84°F. → Try March |
| 46 | Outer Banks NC | 5% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 16% | 70°F | Outer Banks is poor for sun this month: just 16% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try June |
| 47 | San Diego CA | 16% (n=120) | 10% (n=128) | 13% | 68°F | San Diego is poor for sun this month: just 13% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 48 | Newport Beach CA | 11% (n=120) | 5% (n=128) | 8% | 67°F | Newport Beach is poor for sun this month: just 8% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 49 | Big Sur CA | 3% (n=120) | 6% (n=128) | 5% | 63°F | Big Sur is poor for sun this month: just 5% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 50 | Lake Tahoe CA | 0% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 5% | 60°F | Lake Tahoe is poor for sun this month: just 5% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try July |
| 51 | Aspen CO | 0% (n=120) | 5% (n=128) | 3% | 59°F | Aspen is historically very rarely clear this month: only 3% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 52 | Jackson Hole WY | 0% (n=120) | 6% (n=128) | 3% | 57°F | Jackson Hole is historically very rarely clear this month: only 3% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 53 | Park City UT | 0% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 1% | 57°F | Park City is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 54 | Carmel-by-the-Sea CA | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 59°F | Carmel-by-the-Sea is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 55 | Vail CO | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 56°F | Vail is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
Honest note on the bottom of this list: Vail is historically 0% clear in May (n=248 days). That is not a soft number — it means roughly 0 days out of every 100 historically meet our clear bar here in this month. If you want Vail, try August instead.
Every month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.