ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data
Where is it warm in January?
Ranked by historical clear-sky percentage from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025, 55 destinations). January is a difficult month across the board — the best option is only 35% clear. Every percentage below has its sample size beside it.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
A destination that is historically 90% clear in January can still be overcast
this specific January. For this week’s actual forecast, each
destination links to its live page.
| # | Destination | Early January (1st–15th, n) |
Late January (16th–end, n) |
Month avg | Avg high | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Naples FL | 32% (n=120) | 37% (n=128) | 35% | 73°F | Naples is mostly overcast this month historically: only 35% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 73°F. |
| 2 | Palm Springs Desert CA | 21% (n=120) | 39% (n=128) | 30% | 69°F | Palm Springs Desert is mostly overcast this month historically: only 30% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 69°F. |
| 3 | Miami FL | 30% (n=120) | 26% (n=128) | 28% | 75°F | Miami is mostly overcast this month historically: only 28% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 75°F. → Try March |
| 4 | Fort Lauderdale FL | 32% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 27% | 74°F | Fort Lauderdale is mostly overcast this month historically: only 27% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 74°F. → Try March |
| 5 | Key West FL | 32% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 27% | 72°F | Key West is mostly overcast this month historically: only 27% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 72°F. → Try March |
| 6 | Palm Beach FL | 32% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 27% | 73°F | Palm Beach is mostly overcast this month historically: only 27% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 73°F. → Try March |
| 7 | Palm Desert CA | 17% (n=120) | 32% (n=128) | 25% | 68°F | Palm Desert is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 68°F. → Try June |
| 8 | Palm Springs CA | 16% (n=120) | 33% (n=128) | 25% | 68°F | Palm Springs is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 68°F. → Try June |
| 9 | Los Angeles CA | 18% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 23% | 67°F | Los Angeles is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 67°F. → Try July |
| 10 | Tampa FL | 25% (n=120) | 22% (n=128) | 23% | 68°F | Tampa is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 68°F. → Try April |
| 11 | Orlando FL | 19% (n=120) | 20% (n=128) | 20% | 69°F | Orlando is mostly overcast this month historically: only 20% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 69°F. → Try March |
| 12 | Santa Barbara CA | 14% (n=120) | 23% (n=128) | 19% | 67°F | Santa Barbara is poor for sun this month: just 19% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 13 | Scottsdale AZ | 13% (n=120) | 22% (n=128) | 18% | 66°F | Scottsdale is poor for sun this month: just 18% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try June |
| 14 | Phoenix AZ | 13% (n=120) | 20% (n=128) | 17% | 66°F | Phoenix is poor for sun this month: just 17% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try May |
| 15 | Sarasota FL | 18% (n=120) | 17% (n=128) | 17% | 68°F | Sarasota is poor for sun this month: just 17% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 16 | Scottsdale Desert Ridge AZ | 11% (n=120) | 14% (n=128) | 13% | 65°F | Scottsdale Desert Ridge is poor for sun this month: just 13% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try June |
| 17 | Tucson AZ | 12% (n=120) | 13% (n=128) | 13% | 65°F | Tucson is poor for sun this month: just 13% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try May |
| 18 | San Luis Obispo CA | 8% (n=120) | 14% (n=128) | 11% | 64°F | San Luis Obispo is poor for sun this month: just 11% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 19 | San Antonio TX | 15% (n=120) | 5% (n=128) | 10% | 64°F | San Antonio is poor for sun this month: just 10% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 20 | Jacksonville FL | 8% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 9% | 63°F | Jacksonville is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 21 | St. Augustine FL | 8% (n=120) | 10% (n=128) | 9% | 64°F | St. Augustine is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 22 | Newport Beach CA | 6% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 8% | 64°F | Newport Beach is poor for sun this month: just 8% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 23 | Amelia Island FL | 9% (n=120) | 6% (n=128) | 7% | 62°F | Amelia Island is poor for sun this month: just 7% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 24 | San Diego CA | 2% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 6% | 64°F | San Diego is poor for sun this month: just 6% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 25 | Austin TX | 6% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 4% | 61°F | Austin is historically very rarely clear this month: only 4% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 26 | Big Sur CA | 1% (n=120) | 4% (n=128) | 3% | 60°F | Big Sur is historically very rarely clear this month: only 3% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 27 | Dallas TX | 4% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 3% | 56°F | Dallas is historically very rarely clear this month: only 3% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 28 | Houston TX | 4% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 2% | 62°F | Houston is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 29 | Savannah GA | 3% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 2% | 60°F | Savannah is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 30 | Sea Island GA | 3% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 2% | 60°F | Sea Island is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 31 | Carmel-by-the-Sea CA | 0% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 1% | 59°F | Carmel-by-the-Sea is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 32 | Charleston SC | 2% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 1% | 57°F | Charleston is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 33 | Kiawah Island SC | 2% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 1% | 57°F | Kiawah Island is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 34 | Marfa TX | 2% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 1% | 59°F | Marfa is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try April |
| 35 | Napa CA | 0% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 1% | 59°F | Napa is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 36 | Panama City Beach FL | 2% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 1% | 61°F | Panama City Beach is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 37 | Wine Country Sonoma CA | 0% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 1% | 58°F | Wine Country Sonoma is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 38 | Albuquerque NM | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 47°F | Albuquerque is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try May |
| 39 | Asheville NC | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 46°F | Asheville is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try September |
| 40 | Aspen CO | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 33°F | Aspen is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 41 | Charlotte NC | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 50°F | Charlotte is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try September |
| 42 | Destin FL | 1% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 60°F | Destin is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 43 | Gulf Shores AL | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 60°F | Gulf Shores is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 44 | Hilton Head SC | 1% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 58°F | Hilton Head is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 45 | Jackson Hole WY | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 30°F | Jackson Hole is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 46 | Lake Tahoe CA | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 39°F | Lake Tahoe is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 47 | Las Vegas NV | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 59°F | Las Vegas is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 48 | Moab UT | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 42°F | Moab is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 49 | Nashville TN | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 47°F | Nashville is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try September |
| 50 | Outer Banks NC | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 52°F | Outer Banks is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 51 | Park City UT | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 32°F | Park City is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 52 | Santa Fe NM | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 36°F | Santa Fe is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 53 | Sedona AZ | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 52°F | Sedona is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 54 | Taos NM | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 37°F | Taos is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 55 | Vail CO | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 30°F | Vail is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
Honest note on the bottom of this list: Vail is historically 0% clear in January (n=248 days). That is not a soft number — it means roughly 0 days out of every 100 historically meet our clear bar here in this month. If you want Vail, try August instead.
Every month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.