ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data
Where is it warm in July?
Ranked by historical clear-sky percentage from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025, 55 destinations). Palm Springs Desert leads with 99% historically clear days in this month (n=248). Every percentage below has its sample size beside it.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
A destination that is historically 90% clear in July can still be overcast
this specific July. For this week’s actual forecast, each
destination links to its live page.
| # | Destination | Early July (1st–15th, n) |
Late July (16th–end, n) |
Month avg | Avg high | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palm Springs Desert CA | 100% (n=120) | 98% (n=128) | 99% | 110°F | Palm Springs Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 99% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 2 | Napa CA | 98% (n=120) | 98% (n=128) | 98% | 86°F | Napa is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 98% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 3 | Palm Springs CA | 98% (n=120) | 98% (n=128) | 98% | 108°F | Palm Springs is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 98% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 4 | Palm Desert CA | 100% (n=120) | 94% (n=128) | 97% | 109°F | Palm Desert is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 97% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 5 | Los Angeles CA | 98% (n=120) | 94% (n=128) | 96% | 88°F | Los Angeles is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 96% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 6 | Wine Country Sonoma CA | 97% (n=120) | 96% (n=128) | 96% | 86°F | Wine Country Sonoma is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 96% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 7 | Santa Barbara CA | 91% (n=120) | 95% (n=128) | 93% | 84°F | Santa Barbara is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 93% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 8 | Moab UT | 93% (n=120) | 88% (n=128) | 90% | 98°F | Moab is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 90% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 9 | Las Vegas NV | 94% (n=120) | 83% (n=128) | 88% | 107°F | Las Vegas is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 88% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 10 | San Diego CA | 82% (n=120) | 94% (n=128) | 88% | 76°F | San Diego is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 88% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 11 | Lake Tahoe CA | 88% (n=120) | 82% (n=128) | 85% | 81°F | Lake Tahoe is historically one of the clearest places in this month: 85% of days meet the clear bar on average across 8 years (n=248). |
| 12 | San Luis Obispo CA | 72% (n=120) | 82% (n=128) | 77% | 78°F | San Luis Obispo clears solidly in this month — 77% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. |
| 13 | Phoenix AZ | 88% (n=120) | 65% (n=128) | 76% | 107°F | Phoenix clears solidly in this month — 76% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 107°F. |
| 14 | Scottsdale AZ | 87% (n=120) | 66% (n=128) | 76% | 107°F | Scottsdale clears solidly in this month — 76% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 107°F. |
| 15 | Scottsdale Desert Ridge AZ | 83% (n=120) | 70% (n=128) | 76% | 105°F | Scottsdale Desert Ridge clears solidly in this month — 76% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 105°F. |
| 16 | Newport Beach CA | 61% (n=120) | 80% (n=128) | 71% | 75°F | Newport Beach clears solidly in this month — 71% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 75°F. |
| 17 | Albuquerque NM | 74% (n=120) | 62% (n=128) | 68% | 93°F | Albuquerque clears solidly in this month — 68% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 93°F. |
| 18 | Sedona AZ | 77% (n=120) | 52% (n=128) | 64% | 94°F | Sedona clears solidly in this month — 64% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 94°F. |
| 19 | Jackson Hole WY | 58% (n=120) | 66% (n=128) | 62% | 81°F | Jackson Hole clears solidly in this month — 62% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 81°F. |
| 20 | Marfa TX | 52% (n=120) | 69% (n=128) | 61% | 91°F | Marfa clears solidly in this month — 61% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 91°F. |
| 21 | Tucson AZ | 66% (n=120) | 49% (n=128) | 57% | 100°F | Tucson is mixed in this month: clear 57% of days historically (n=248), avg high 100°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 22 | Taos NM | 52% (n=120) | 45% (n=128) | 48% | 85°F | Taos is mixed in this month: clear 48% of days historically (n=248), avg high 85°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 23 | Austin TX | 41% (n=120) | 52% (n=128) | 47% | 95°F | Austin is mixed in this month: clear 47% of days historically (n=248), avg high 95°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 24 | Dallas TX | 32% (n=120) | 62% (n=128) | 47% | 96°F | Dallas is mixed in this month: clear 47% of days historically (n=248), avg high 96°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 25 | San Antonio TX | 38% (n=120) | 50% (n=128) | 44% | 95°F | San Antonio is mixed in this month: clear 44% of days historically (n=248), avg high 95°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 26 | Aspen CO | 43% (n=120) | 43% (n=128) | 43% | 80°F | Aspen is mixed in this month: clear 43% of days historically (n=248), avg high 80°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 27 | Park City UT | 45% (n=120) | 38% (n=128) | 41% | 81°F | Park City is mixed in this month: clear 41% of days historically (n=248), avg high 81°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 28 | Santa Fe NM | 44% (n=120) | 38% (n=128) | 41% | 83°F | Santa Fe is mixed in this month: clear 41% of days historically (n=248), avg high 83°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 29 | Vail CO | 44% (n=120) | 29% (n=128) | 36% | 78°F | Vail is mostly overcast this month historically: only 36% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. |
| 30 | Outer Banks NC | 32% (n=120) | 38% (n=128) | 35% | 82°F | Outer Banks is mostly overcast this month historically: only 35% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 82°F. |
| 31 | Big Sur CA | 29% (n=120) | 22% (n=128) | 25% | 69°F | Big Sur is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 69°F. → Try August |
| 32 | Charlotte NC | 23% (n=120) | 21% (n=128) | 22% | 90°F | Charlotte is mostly overcast this month historically: only 22% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 90°F. → Try September |
| 33 | Asheville NC | 24% (n=120) | 18% (n=128) | 21% | 84°F | Asheville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 21% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 84°F. → Try September |
| 34 | Houston TX | 13% (n=120) | 29% (n=128) | 21% | 91°F | Houston is mostly overcast this month historically: only 21% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 91°F. → Try October |
| 35 | Nashville TN | 24% (n=120) | 14% (n=128) | 19% | 89°F | Nashville is poor for sun this month: just 19% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try September |
| 36 | Key West FL | 19% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 17% | 86°F | Key West is poor for sun this month: just 17% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 37 | Hilton Head SC | 13% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 15% | 88°F | Hilton Head is poor for sun this month: just 15% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 38 | Savannah GA | 13% (n=120) | 14% (n=128) | 14% | 90°F | Savannah is poor for sun this month: just 14% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 39 | Sea Island GA | 12% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 14% | 87°F | Sea Island is poor for sun this month: just 14% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 40 | Charleston SC | 11% (n=120) | 13% (n=128) | 12% | 88°F | Charleston is poor for sun this month: just 12% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 41 | Amelia Island FL | 7% (n=120) | 13% (n=128) | 10% | 88°F | Amelia Island is poor for sun this month: just 10% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 42 | Gulf Shores AL | 12% (n=120) | 7% (n=128) | 9% | 87°F | Gulf Shores is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 43 | Panama City Beach FL | 9% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 9% | 86°F | Panama City Beach is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 44 | St. Augustine FL | 8% (n=120) | 10% (n=128) | 9% | 87°F | St. Augustine is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 45 | Jacksonville FL | 4% (n=120) | 11% (n=128) | 8% | 90°F | Jacksonville is poor for sun this month: just 8% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 46 | Kiawah Island SC | 8% (n=120) | 7% (n=128) | 7% | 87°F | Kiawah Island is poor for sun this month: just 7% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 47 | Miami FL | 3% (n=120) | 8% (n=128) | 6% | 88°F | Miami is poor for sun this month: just 6% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 48 | Palm Beach FL | 2% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 6% | 87°F | Palm Beach is poor for sun this month: just 6% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 49 | Fort Lauderdale FL | 4% (n=120) | 5% (n=128) | 5% | 88°F | Fort Lauderdale is poor for sun this month: just 5% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try March |
| 50 | Sarasota FL | 9% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 5% | 87°F | Sarasota is poor for sun this month: just 5% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try April |
| 51 | Destin FL | 3% (n=120) | 5% (n=128) | 4% | 88°F | Destin is historically very rarely clear this month: only 4% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 52 | Naples FL | 3% (n=120) | 4% (n=128) | 4% | 89°F | Naples is historically very rarely clear this month: only 4% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try March |
| 53 | Orlando FL | 2% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 2% | 88°F | Orlando is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try March |
| 54 | Tampa FL | 3% (n=120) | 1% (n=128) | 2% | 89°F | Tampa is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try April |
| 55 | Carmel-by-the-Sea CA | 1% (n=120) | 1% (n=128) | 1% | 63°F | Carmel-by-the-Sea is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
Honest note on the bottom of this list: Carmel-by-the-Sea is historically 1% clear in July (n=248 days). That is not a soft number — it means roughly 1 days out of every 100 historically meet our clear bar here in this month. If you want Carmel-by-the-Sea, try October instead.
Every month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.