ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data
Where is it warm in March?
Ranked by historical clear-sky percentage from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025, 55 destinations). Phoenix leads at 61% clear days (n=248). Every percentage below has its sample size beside it.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
A destination that is historically 90% clear in March can still be overcast
this specific March. For this week’s actual forecast, each
destination links to its live page.
| # | Destination | Early March (1st–15th, n) |
Late March (16th–end, n) |
Month avg | Avg high | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix AZ | 54% (n=120) | 67% (n=128) | 61% | 76°F | Phoenix clears solidly in this month — 61% of days on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 76°F. |
| 2 | Palm Springs Desert CA | 52% (n=120) | 66% (n=128) | 59% | 77°F | Palm Springs Desert is mixed in this month: clear 59% of days historically (n=248), avg high 77°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 3 | Scottsdale AZ | 48% (n=120) | 66% (n=128) | 57% | 76°F | Scottsdale is mixed in this month: clear 57% of days historically (n=248), avg high 76°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 4 | Tucson AZ | 51% (n=120) | 62% (n=128) | 57% | 75°F | Tucson is mixed in this month: clear 57% of days historically (n=248), avg high 75°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 5 | Palm Desert CA | 48% (n=120) | 62% (n=128) | 55% | 76°F | Palm Desert is mixed in this month: clear 55% of days historically (n=248), avg high 76°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 6 | Palm Springs CA | 42% (n=120) | 61% (n=128) | 52% | 75°F | Palm Springs is mixed in this month: clear 52% of days historically (n=248), avg high 75°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 7 | Tampa FL | 49% (n=120) | 54% (n=128) | 52% | 78°F | Tampa is mixed in this month: clear 52% of days historically (n=248), avg high 78°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 8 | Sarasota FL | 44% (n=120) | 53% (n=128) | 49% | 77°F | Sarasota is mixed in this month: clear 49% of days historically (n=248), avg high 77°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 9 | Marfa TX | 40% (n=120) | 55% (n=128) | 48% | 72°F | Marfa is mixed in this month: clear 48% of days historically (n=248), avg high 72°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 10 | Naples FL | 48% (n=120) | 48% (n=128) | 48% | 81°F | Naples is mixed in this month: clear 48% of days historically (n=248), avg high 81°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 11 | Scottsdale Desert Ridge AZ | 37% (n=120) | 55% (n=128) | 46% | 74°F | Scottsdale Desert Ridge is mixed in this month: clear 46% of days historically (n=248), avg high 74°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 12 | Key West FL | 43% (n=120) | 47% (n=128) | 45% | 76°F | Key West is mixed in this month: clear 45% of days historically (n=248), avg high 76°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 13 | Orlando FL | 41% (n=120) | 48% (n=128) | 45% | 81°F | Orlando is mixed in this month: clear 45% of days historically (n=248), avg high 81°F. Check the halves — the split can be wide. |
| 14 | Fort Lauderdale FL | 35% (n=120) | 38% (n=128) | 37% | 80°F | Fort Lauderdale is mostly overcast this month historically: only 37% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 80°F. |
| 15 | Jacksonville FL | 35% (n=120) | 38% (n=128) | 37% | 75°F | Jacksonville is mostly overcast this month historically: only 37% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 75°F. |
| 16 | Palm Beach FL | 32% (n=120) | 40% (n=128) | 36% | 79°F | Palm Beach is mostly overcast this month historically: only 36% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 79°F. |
| 17 | San Antonio TX | 32% (n=120) | 33% (n=128) | 33% | 78°F | San Antonio is mostly overcast this month historically: only 33% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. |
| 18 | Las Vegas NV | 18% (n=120) | 45% (n=128) | 32% | 70°F | Las Vegas is mostly overcast this month historically: only 32% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 70°F. |
| 19 | Miami FL | 33% (n=120) | 32% (n=128) | 32% | 80°F | Miami is mostly overcast this month historically: only 32% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 80°F. |
| 20 | Austin TX | 25% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 26% | 76°F | Austin is mostly overcast this month historically: only 26% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 76°F. → Try October |
| 21 | Amelia Island FL | 22% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 25% | 72°F | Amelia Island is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 72°F. → Try April |
| 22 | Los Angeles CA | 18% (n=120) | 32% (n=128) | 25% | 68°F | Los Angeles is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 68°F. → Try July |
| 23 | Savannah GA | 19% (n=120) | 30% (n=128) | 25% | 72°F | Savannah is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 72°F. → Try October |
| 24 | St. Augustine FL | 22% (n=120) | 28% (n=128) | 25% | 72°F | St. Augustine is mostly overcast this month historically: only 25% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 72°F. → Try April |
| 25 | Dallas TX | 18% (n=120) | 27% (n=128) | 23% | 72°F | Dallas is mostly overcast this month historically: only 23% of days clear on average across 8 years (n=248), avg high 72°F. → Try August |
| 26 | Hilton Head SC | 18% (n=120) | 20% (n=128) | 19% | 69°F | Hilton Head is poor for sun this month: just 19% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 27 | Santa Barbara CA | 9% (n=120) | 28% (n=128) | 19% | 67°F | Santa Barbara is poor for sun this month: just 19% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 28 | Destin FL | 12% (n=120) | 17% (n=128) | 15% | 70°F | Destin is poor for sun this month: just 15% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 29 | Houston TX | 8% (n=120) | 22% (n=128) | 15% | 74°F | Houston is poor for sun this month: just 15% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 30 | Sea Island GA | 12% (n=120) | 17% (n=128) | 15% | 69°F | Sea Island is poor for sun this month: just 15% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 31 | Kiawah Island SC | 12% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 14% | 68°F | Kiawah Island is poor for sun this month: just 14% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 32 | Panama City Beach FL | 10% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 13% | 70°F | Panama City Beach is poor for sun this month: just 13% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 33 | Charleston SC | 8% (n=120) | 16% (n=128) | 12% | 68°F | Charleston is poor for sun this month: just 12% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 34 | Charlotte NC | 8% (n=120) | 13% (n=128) | 11% | 64°F | Charlotte is poor for sun this month: just 11% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try September |
| 35 | Gulf Shores AL | 6% (n=120) | 13% (n=128) | 10% | 70°F | Gulf Shores is poor for sun this month: just 10% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try October |
| 36 | San Luis Obispo CA | 2% (n=120) | 17% (n=128) | 10% | 63°F | San Luis Obispo is poor for sun this month: just 10% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 37 | Albuquerque NM | 0% (n=120) | 17% (n=128) | 9% | 63°F | Albuquerque is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try May |
| 38 | Napa CA | 4% (n=120) | 14% (n=128) | 9% | 63°F | Napa is poor for sun this month: just 9% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try July |
| 39 | Nashville TN | 6% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 8% | 62°F | Nashville is poor for sun this month: just 8% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try September |
| 40 | Wine Country Sonoma CA | 4% (n=120) | 12% (n=128) | 8% | 62°F | Wine Country Sonoma is poor for sun this month: just 8% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try July |
| 41 | San Diego CA | 3% (n=120) | 9% (n=128) | 6% | 64°F | San Diego is poor for sun this month: just 6% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try August |
| 42 | Sedona AZ | 1% (n=120) | 11% (n=128) | 6% | 60°F | Sedona is poor for sun this month: just 6% of days clear historically (n=248). The 8-year record says to look elsewhere. → Try June |
| 43 | Moab UT | 0% (n=120) | 8% (n=128) | 4% | 59°F | Moab is historically very rarely clear this month: only 4% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 44 | Asheville NC | 1% (n=120) | 5% (n=128) | 3% | 59°F | Asheville is historically very rarely clear this month: only 3% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try September |
| 45 | Newport Beach CA | 0% (n=120) | 3% (n=128) | 2% | 62°F | Newport Beach is historically very rarely clear this month: only 2% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 46 | Big Sur CA | 0% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 1% | 58°F | Big Sur is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 47 | Carmel-by-the-Sea CA | 0% (n=120) | 2% (n=128) | 1% | 58°F | Carmel-by-the-Sea is historically very rarely clear this month: only 1% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try October |
| 48 | Aspen CO | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 42°F | Aspen is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
| 49 | Jackson Hole WY | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 40°F | Jackson Hole is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 50 | Lake Tahoe CA | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 40°F | Lake Tahoe is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 51 | Outer Banks NC | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 58°F | Outer Banks is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 52 | Park City UT | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 38°F | Park City is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try July |
| 53 | Santa Fe NM | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 52°F | Santa Fe is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 54 | Taos NM | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 50°F | Taos is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try June |
| 55 | Vail CO | 0% (n=120) | 0% (n=128) | 0% | 39°F | Vail is historically very rarely clear this month: only 0% of days meet the clear bar across 8 years (n=248). Plan for clouds. → Try August |
Honest note on the bottom of this list: Vail is historically 0% clear in March (n=248 days). That is not a soft number — it means roughly 0 days out of every 100 historically meet our clear bar here in this month. If you want Vail, try August instead.
Every month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.