Texas · MAF
Marfa weather this week
Marfa scores 7.4 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 7. Dull days (4) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good week.
The model gives this week 7.4 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 1 genuinely clear day and 4 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.
1 clear of 7 days · best run 6 days — The clouds are winning — 3 bright days out of 7
The next 7 days in Marfa
Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance in the window (20%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.
| Day | High | Low | Rain chance | Sky | Day score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94°F | 68°F | 19% | Heavy drizzle wet | 5.4 Heavy drizzle - expect to get wet |
|
| 94°F | 66°F | 8% | Overcast cloudy | 7.5 Cloudy and dry |
|
| 90°F | 70°F | 4% | Light drizzle wet | 7.0 Light drizzle - expect to get wet |
|
| 89°F | 68°F | 0% | Clear clear | 9.8 Clear but hot (89°F) |
|
| 93°F | 71°F | 2% | Partly cloudy partly | 8.6 Partly cloudy and dry |
|
| 94°F | 71°F | 11% | Partly cloudy partly | 8.3 Partly cloudy and dry |
|
| 91°F | 70°F | 20% | Overcast cloudy | 7.7 Cloudy with rain risk |
How this week got its score
- 7 forecast days: 1 clear/mainly clear, 2 partly cloudy, 2 overcast, 2 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
- Trimmed mean of day scores 7.8 × 0.55 = 4.30
- Worst day drag: worst day is 5.4 × 0.25 = 1.35 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
- Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 6/7 = 86% coverage × 0.20 = 1.71
- Best single day is 9.8 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
- Advertised 3-day window (2026-08-06→2026-08-08) scores 6.3 on its own.
- Legacy gate counted 6/7 days as "perfect sun"; this model counts 1 genuinely clear.
The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.
Getting to Marfa
The nearest airport we price is MAF. From New York City that is about 3h 50m in the air out of EWR, 1665 miles. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.
Where to stay in Marfa
1 property we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. The nightly rate shown is what the supplier returned at the last refresh for the window above — it is a held rate, not a quote, and it moves.
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Thunderbird HotelRate unavailablenot quoted at last refresh
So, should you go?
Marfa scores 7.4 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 7. Dull days (4) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good week. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.
Marfa by month — 8-year ERA5 history
Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.
| Month | Historically clear | Sample (n) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| February | 19% | n=226 | all destinations → |
| March | 48% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| April | 78% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| May | 73% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| June | 70% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| July | 61% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| August | 60% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| September | 64% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| October | 69% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| November | 34% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| December | 11% | n=248 | all destinations → |
Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Marfa in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.
Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-08-06T13:36:08.059221Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.