California · MRY

Carmel-by-the-Sea weather this week

Carmel-by-the-Sea scores 7.6 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 7. Dull days (6) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week.

7.6/10

Mostly dull

<built-in method clear of dict object at 0x7c5533f2f440> genuinely clear days, 0 partly cloudy, 4 overcast, 2 wet, 0 stormy — out of 7 forecast days.

Bright days 1 vs dull days 6. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good week.

We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

The model gives this week 7.6 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 1 genuinely clear day and 6 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.

1 clear of 7 days · best run 5 days — The clouds are winning — 1 bright day out of 7

The next 7 days in Carmel-by-the-Sea

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance in the window (2%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Carmel-by-the-Sea daily forecast, Sat 8 Aug to Mon 10 Aug. Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 6.7. A lone good day cannot carry the week.
Day	High	Low	Rain chance	Sky	Day score
Thu 6 Aug	63°F	56°F	1%	Fog wet	6.8 Fog - expect to get wet
Fri 7 Aug	62°F	56°F	1%	Fog wet	6.7 Fog - expect to get wet
Sat 8 Aug	83°F	61°F	0%	Clear clear	10.0 Clear and perfect
Sun 9 Aug	76°F	57°F	1%	Overcast cloudy	8.5 Cloudy but warm & dry
Mon 10 Aug	72°F	56°F	2%	Overcast cloudy	8.5 Cloudy but warm & dry
Tue 11 Aug	72°F	56°F	2%	Overcast cloudy	8.5 Cloudy but warm & dry
Wed 12 Aug	72°F	55°F	1%	Overcast cloudy	8.5 Cloudy but warm & dry

How this week got its score

7 forecast days: 1 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 4 overcast, 2 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
Trimmed mean of day scores 8.2 × 0.55 = 4.49
Worst day drag: worst day is 6.7 × 0.25 = 1.68 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 5/7 = 71% coverage × 0.20 = 1.43
Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
Advertised 3-day window (2026-08-08→2026-08-10) scores 9.1 on its own.
Legacy gate counted 5/7 days as "perfect sun"; this model counts 1 genuinely clear.

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Carmel-by-the-Sea

The nearest airport we price is MRY. From New York City that is about 5h 36m in the air out of SWF, 2551 miles. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Carmel-by-the-Sea

3 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. The nightly rate shown is what the supplier returned at the last refresh for the window above — it is a held rate, not a quote, and it moves.

Monterey Plaza Hotel & Spa

5-star · guest rating 9.2/10 · Five-Star Property

$583per night$1,748 total
The Quail Lodge

4-star · guest rating 9.2/10

$799per night$2,397 total
Sanctuary Beach Resort

4-star · guest rating 9.1/10

$778per night$2,335 total

So, should you go?

Carmel-by-the-Sea scores 7.6 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 7. Dull days (6) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Carmel-by-the-Sea by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.

Carmel-by-the-Sea: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month	Historically clear	Sample (n)
January	1%	n=248	all destinations →
February	3%	n=226	all destinations →
March	1%	n=248	all destinations →
April	1%	n=240	all destinations →
May	0%	n=248	all destinations →
June	4%	n=240	all destinations →
July	1%	n=248	all destinations →
August	4%	n=248	all destinations →
September	10%	n=240	all destinations →
October	16%	n=248	all destinations →
November	3%	n=240	all destinations →
December	1%	n=248	all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Carmel-by-the-Sea in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-08-06T13:36:08.059221Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.