Weather & the sun gate · Core
What does "verified" vs "predicted" mean?
Verified means the day is inside the reliable forecast horizon — roughly the next 0–7 days — where the ensemble models agree closely and the historical hit rate for the two gate conditions is high. Verified days carry the teal check.
Predicted means the day is 8–16 days out. It is a real model output, not a guess, but the further out you go the more the ensemble spreads. We show predicted days because you have to book ahead to get a decent fare — we just refuse to dress them up as certainty.
Practical consequence: a verified window is a reason to book now. A predicted window is a reason to add it to your watchlist and let us email you the moment it converts to verified. That watchlist email is the single most useful thing this product does.
We never retroactively change a badge to make ourselves look better. If a verified window fails on the day, it stays on the record as a verified window that failed.
More on weather & the sun gate
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